Gold Price Today Jumps Above Rs 52,100; Will it Rise Further after Basic Import Duty Hike?

Gold price in India edged higher on Monday. India has recently raised the basic import duty on gold to 12.5 per cent from 7.5 per cent. This move has impacted the price of the precious metal. On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), the gold price future jumped 0.49 per cent to Rs 52,169 for 10 grams at 1210 hours on July 4. Silver price future also increased 0.29 per cent to Rs 58,341 for a kilogram on Monday.

The safe-haven metal, however, traded lower in the international market on July 4. Spot gold was down 0.2 per cent at $1,807.19 per ounce of 0101 GMT. US gold futures rose 0.5 per cent to $1,809.50, Reuters reported. The US dollar climbed to near two-decade highs during the previous session, denting the appeal of precious metal for buyers holding other currencies. Benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in a month on Friday. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.8 per cent to 1,041.9 tonnes on Friday from 1,050.31 tonnes on Thursday.

To bring down ballooning trade deficit, the Centre hiked the basic import duty on the bullion.With the latest hike, the total effective import tax on the precious metal will surge to 15.75 per cent which includes 12.50 per cent basic import duty, 2.5 per cent agri cess and 0.75 per cent social welfare surcharge. Additionally, there will be a 3 per cent Goods and Service Tax (GST) on billion. So, the levies on gold will now rise to 18.75 per cent.

Gold Price Outlook

“International spot and comex gold and silver prices have started weaker on Monday morning in Asian trade as an elevated US dollar hurt demand for greenback-priced bullion and also outweighed support from weakening Treasury yields. Today’s range of LBMA spot gold is $1792.02-$1819.81,” said Sriram Iyer, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities.

“Domestic gold futures prices could start weaker on Monday morning tracking a weak start in the overseas markets. Rise in import duty could weaken demand in the short run and keep upside capped. Today’s range of MCX August gold is Rs 51,085-52,390,” he added.

“Further, a sharp decline in 10 year US bond yields and concerns over rising inflation lifted demand for safe haven assets. However, optimistic sentiments in US markets coupled with stronger dollar index capped further gains in precious metal prices,” said ICICI Direct.

“MCX gold prices are expected to trade with a positive bias for the day due to elevated inflation. It is trading above the resistance levels of Rs 51,750. As long as it sustains above this level, it is likely to rally towards Rs 52,200 to 52,400 levels in coming sessions,” it added.

Silver Price Outlook

“Domestic silver futures prices could start weaker on Monday. A weaker Rupee could cap downside. Today’s range of MCX silver September Rs 57,210-59,470,” Iyer mentioned. “Silver prices are expected to take cues from gold prices and may move towards Rs 58,800 for the day,” said ICICI Direct.